Well, since this is a relatively new procedure, it's hard to speculate into the three or four decades.
The results from the country registries, especially Australia point to good success, about 94% or more retention at the 10 year mark. That's for all patients, all doctors, all situations.
So the chances are good, especially when you look at other procedures and their success rates.
We have some solid results for that time frame, and although you can extrapolate from those with some statistical confidence, until we've actually spanned the decades, we won't know the actual results and get some hard evidence going forward.
The tendencies seem to be that if you get doctors who are experienced and active, with good results from current patients, you increase your chances of success.
I would take ten years as a good possibility, since we have hard facts on that. Anything beyond that is speculation, but as far as trends go, if you've been successful for that long, the chances are good for further success.
Muddy waters, but that is the problem with being in the first wave of any procedure, I think.